While any positive economic news is welcome, many in Washington and elsewhere are way too optimistic about a recovery. Until consumer spending and job growth turn positive, things are going to be painful.
Regarding consumer spending, Baseline Scenario critiques a post in the LA Times discussing a new Bank of America Merrill Lynch report “The Myth [...]
Continue reading about Can we have a recovery without consumer spending and job growth?
“In July, the number of unemployed persons was 14.5 million,” according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Another quarter million jobs were lost; however, as Chart 2 indicates below, the month-to-month decline is about half the job loss rate six months ago.
The bad news in the BLS report for July is on page 2:
The number [...]
Continue reading about Long-term unemployment rises as total unemployment slows
Today’s WSJ column by Meredith Whitney is must reading for any business that depends on credit cards or has customers dependent on credit cards. Armed with statistics, Whitney predicts trouble ahead as credit card companies aggressively reduce credit lines to limit their exposure.
Currently, there is roughly $5 trillion in credit-card lines outstanding in the U.S….My [...]
I’ve been writing this blog for two months now and studying this crisis since last fall. I’ve come to believe one of the hardest things to do is to “abandon the assumption of continuity” (a handy phrase I got from Emer Dooley at UW’s Foster School of Business). Since WWII, we haven’t had a really [...]
Continue reading about Abandon the assumption of continuity: Retirement funding update
In my previous two posts in this series, I looked first at past recessions and then at the glacial rate growth in jobs and household income even before the current crisis. To meet rising household expenses, Americans worked longer hours and reduced savings from 10% of income in the 1970s to nearly 0% today.
They also [...]
Continue reading about Gauging economic climate change, Pt. 3: Consumer spending and debt
